The Effect and Mechanism of Digital Economy on Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities
Sun Wenyuan, Zhou Haoping
摘要：“双碳”目标下，如何促进节能降碳成为当前中国亟须解决的重大问题，数字经济发展在促进经济高质量发展的同时，也会对碳排放量产生影响。鉴于此，本文以中国260个地级市为研究对象，通过构建面板数据模型，实证考察了数字经济对碳排放的影响。研究结果显示：首先，数字经济对碳排放的作用效应为非线性的倒U型关系，这一结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立；其次，机制分析发现，地方政府竞争是数字经济影响碳排放的重要机制，数字经济可通过地方政府竞争的间接效应抑制碳排放；最后，异质性分析结果表明，数字经济对碳排放的影响会因区域经济发展水平的不同、城市能源丰裕程度的不同、城市创新水平的不同而产生差异，其中经济发达地区、能源丰裕度低的城市以及高创新投入城市，数字经济对碳排放的影响更为显著。因此，政府应加快新型数字基础设施建设步伐，为数字经济发挥减碳效应提供有力支撑；同时，应进一步优化政绩考核评价体系，为我国低碳发展增添动力。
关键词：数字经济；碳排放；地方政府竞争
Abstract: Under the double carbon target, how to promote energy saving and carbon reduction has become a major issue that needs to be addressed urgently in China at present, and the development of digital economy will have an impact on China's carbon emissions while promoting high-quality economic development. In view of this, the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions is empirically investigated by constructing a panel data model with 260 prefecture-level cities in China as the research object. The findings show that, firstly, the effect of digital economy on carbon emissions is a nonlinear inverted U-shaped relationship, and this finding still holds after a series of robustness tests. Secondly, the mechanism analysis finds that local government competition is an important mechanism through which the digital economy affects carbon emissions, and the digital economy can suppress carbon emissions through the indirect effect of local government competition. Finally, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions will be differentiated by the different levels of regional economic development, the different levels of energy abundance in cities, and the different levels of innovation in cities, among which the impact of digital economy on carbon emissions is more significant in economically developed regions, cities with low energy abundance, and cities with high innovation input. Therefore, the government should accelerate the pace of new digital infrastructure construction to provide strong support for the effect of the digital economy on carbon emissions. At the same time, it should further optimize the performance evaluation system to add momentum to China's low-carbon development.
Keywords: Digital Economy；Carbon Emissions；Government Competition
基金项目：国家社科基金一般项目“人工智能对就业的影响机制与对策研究”（20BJL144）和江苏省研究生实践创新计划项目“人工智能技术发展对就业影响研究”（SJCX22_0913）的阶段性成果。
